But President Xi had not lost his mind..

Dependency is vulnerability

In its 2018 Arctic strategy, China referred to itself as a “Near-Arctic power” and presented a plan for establishing a Polar Silk Road to increase its economic influence on Europe. A silk road would reduce the shipping time for goods from Asia to Europe by ten days, but that was not all..

More dependent on autocracies

If UN climate scientists are correct, the Arctic Ocean will be the world’s most important source of protein in 2035, the shipping traffic will increase, new oil and gas fields will be put into operation, and highly valuable mineral deposits along the  Arctic Ocean spreading ridges will be available for extraction.

Minerals are the building blocks in all technologies. With the green shift, the global demand for minerals is increasing, and thereby the  dependency on the countries that produce them.

Today, China controls the mineral supply chains, despite not having the largest mineral resources themselves. 

China are dependent on countries like Australia, Chile and Congo for the critical minerals it produces.

Copper, lithium, and cobalt are some of the minerals that are essential to solving the climate challenges.

Half of the world’s most productive copper and lithium mines are located along the equator, in the areas where temperatures are expected to increase the most.

Water scarcity is already high in these areas, and when these mines close due to lack of water, President Xi knows that the Arctic Ocean, with its enormous mineral resources, will become very attractive.

Massive marine mineral investments

The mineral concentrations in the deep sea are several times higher than on land and China’s investments in technologies for extracting seabed minerals are currently 30 times higher than those of the United States and Europe combined.

These investments have paid off, and China has been awarded the most mineral licenses in international waters. Russia comes in on a second place and with its 24000 kilometers of artic sealine it also holds the largest territorial rights in the Arctic Ocean.

It is easy to understand the Chinese silence when it comes to Russia’s war in Ukraine. If Russia weakens, Chinese influence and access to valuable natural resources in the Arctic increases.

An area of future confrontation

China and Russia’s investments in the deep sea also come with a military component. The deep sea is a domain where NATO has very limited capacity. While NATO has weapon systems to locate, track, and defeat most things in space, the capacities within the deep sea domain are almost non-existent.

In the People’s Liberation Army doctrine for future operations, the deep sea is identified as an area of confrontation, along with the quantum space and the outer space.

Deep Sea Mining is a part of the future

When the soon-to-be largest superpower in the world has identified seabed minerals as a priority area in its latest five-year plan, it will happen.

Through refining, China controls the supply chains. Through its seabed mineral investment, China will also control the resources.

In the deep sea, mineral concentrations are several times higher than on land. Looking a few decades ahead, it is obvious that extraction will take place where the concentration is highest and the potential for damage is the least.

An ethical responsibility

When the Norwegian Parliament shall vote for opening the Norwegian Continental Shelf for mineral exploration, it is not a question of whether seabed minerals will be a part of the future.

The question is whether Norway should contribute to balancing a crippled supply chain, while ensuring that the technological, and environmental standards are set as high as possible.